How far Covid19 virus spread can be curbed by relaxing lockdown in different stages? -A study in Indian scenario

  1. Arindom Chakraborty
  2. Kalyan Das

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Abstract

After the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has rapidly spread out to other provinces, neighboring countries and finally has become a global terror. It is indeed a matter of serious concern to study the transmission dynamics of this virus. The potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity can be well understood by the unknown basic reproduction number. A stochastic model can be used to estimate this number with possible safeguard on uncertainties. It is essential to assess how the expensive, resource-intensive measures can contribute to the prevention and control of the 2019-nCoV infection and how long they should be maintained. A short-term forecast of incidences are often of high priority. The challenge is to forecast unseen “future” simulated data for three different scenarios at some time points. We estimate current levels of transmissibility, over variable time points under different levels of interventions and use that to forecast near-future incidence. The forecasted values of incidence can be used for determining the near future mortality also.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.11.20129023: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

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    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.11.20129023v1 on medRxiv