They stumble that run fast: the economic and COVID-19 transmission impacts of reopening industries in the US

  1. Marita Zimmermann
  2. Amy E Benefield
  3. Benjamin M Althouse

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Abstract

COVID-19 has laid bare the United States economically and epidemiologically. Decisions must be made as how and when to reopen industries. Here we quantify economic and health risk tradeoffs of reopening by industry for each state in the US. To estimate total economic impact, we summed income loss due to unemployment and profit loss. We assess transmission risk by: (1) workplace size, (2) human interactions, (3) inability to work from home, and (4) industry size. We found that the industry with the highest estimated economic impact from COVID-19 was manufacturing in 40 states; the industry with the largest transmission risk index was accommodation and food services in 41 states, and the industry with the highest economic impact per unit of transmission risk, interpreted as the value of reopening, was manufacturing in 37 states. Researchers and decision makers must work together to consider both health and economics when making tough decisions.

O, let us hence; I stand on sudden haste .

Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast .

-William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet , Act II, scene 3

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.11.20128918: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    We also do not consider the disproportionate effects of closing schools on marginalized and vulnerable populations independently, or the effects on other industries of parents having limited childcare options during work hours, which is a limitation of this approach (17–19). For these reasons, we recommend that education not be directly compared to other industries, and instead be given special consideration for reopening purposes. Routine COVID-19 testing (weekly, or even semiweekly) and frequent symptom screening may help schools reopen safely; but cheaper PCR tests or pooling of specimens may have to be implemented in the face of limited resources in schools. This work is meant to inform initial discussions regarding the reopening of industries. While it illuminates high-level industry economic impacts and transmission risks, there are a host of other considerations vital to the policymaking processes. Questions remain regarding the social, cultural, and mental health impacts of industry closures that may outweigh risks of reopening. Data is newly surfacing on how the shutdown has disproportionately affected communities of varying socio-economic status. We need to understand this better and ensure that burden relief reaches the most affected. These, among many other, questions and considerations need to be a part of the process with which policymakers develop policy and redefine the road back to an open economy. Our work emphasizes that the reopening of states should not b...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.11.20128918v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.11.20128918v1 on medRxiv