SHELTER IN PLACE ORDER CONTAINED COVID-19 GROWTH RATE IN GREECE

  1. T. Giannouchos
  2. A. Giannouchos
  3. I. Christodoulou
  4. E. Steletou
  5. K. Souliotis

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Abstract

Background

The Greek authorities implemented the strong social distancing measures within the first few weeks after the first confirmed case of the virus to curtail the COVID-19 growth rate.

Objectives

To estimate the effect of the two-stage strong social distancing measures, the closure of all non-essential shopping centers and businesses on March 16 and the shelter in place orders (SIPOs) on March 23 on the COVID-19 growth rate in Greece

Methods

We obtained data on COVID-19 cases in Greece from February 26 th through May 4 th from publicly available sources. An interrupted time-series regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of the measures on the exponential growth of confirmed COVID-19 cases, controlling for the number of daily testing, and weekly fixed-effects.

Results

The growth rate of the COVID-19 cases in the pre-policies implementation period was positive as expected (p=0.003). Based on the estimates of the interrupted time-series, our results indicate that the SIPO on March 23 significantly slowed the growth rate of COVID-19 in Greece (p=0.04). However, we did not find evidence on the effectiveness of standalone and partial measures such as the non-essential business closures implemented on March 16 on the COVID-19 spread reduction.

Discussion

The combined social distancing measures implemented by the Greek authorities within the first few weeks after the first confirmed case of the virus reduced the COVID-19 growth rate. These findings provide evidence and highlight the effectiveness of these measures to flatten the curve and to slow the spread of the virus.

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    All analyses were conducted using Stata version 16.1 (StataCorp, College Station, TX).
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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125666v1 on medRxiv