Effectiveness of stay-in-place-orders during COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from US border counties

  1. Srikant Devaraj
  2. Pankaj C. Patel

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Abstract

Recent studies on US counties, with varying effect sizes, show that stay-in-place-orders (SIPOs) are associated with a decline in new COVID-19 cases. Our estimation approach relies on county-pairs across state-borders where one state has SIPO whereas the other state does not, controls for matched county-pair fixed effects and day of observation fixed-effects. The county-pair sample from southern, mid-western, and mountain region states (from March 1, 2020 to April 25, 2020) shows that daily COVID-19 incidence case growth rate is 1.994 percentage points lower for counties in SIPO states relative to those bordering in non-SIPO states. Specifically, we find SIPO reduced daily growth rates by 1.97, 2.14, 2.03, and 2.27 percentage points after 1 to 5 days, 6 to 10 days, 11 to 15 days, and 16 to 20 days, respectively. Our effect sizes are much smaller than in the previous studies with the caveat that states in the northeast and on the west coast could not be included in the border county-pair specification. We find limited evidence of heterogeneous effects in counties with a higher population density, percentage of black or Hispanic residents, proportion of population over 65 years, and social association rates in a county. Nor do we find evidence of meaningful differences in effects of SIPO by county Gini index, unemployment, or GDP. The results of this study could further inform policymakers in making decisions on SIPO extensions or lifting of such orders.

JEL

H75; I18

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125419: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variableWe include 2018 county-level share of 65 years and older population, the share of African Americans in the county population, the share of the Hispanics in the county population, and the share of females in the population.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125419v1 on medRxiv