Examine the impact of weather and ambient air pollutant parameters on daily case of COVID-19 in India

  1. Kousik Das
  2. Nilanjana Das Chatterjee

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Abstract

The present study presents a view on exploring the relationship pattern between COVID 19 daily cases with weather parameters and air pollutants in mainland India. We consider mean temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, rainfall, wind speed, PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO 2 , NO 2 and CO as independent variable and daily COVID 19 cases as dependent variable for 18 states during 18 th march to 30 th April, 2020.After dividing the dataset for 0 to 10 day, 10 to 25 days and 0 to 44 days, the current study applied Akaike s Information Criteria (AIC) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to examine the kind of relationship between independent variables with COVID 19 cases. Initially GAM model result shows variables like temperature and solar radiation has positive relation ( p <0.05) in 0 to 10 days study with daily cases. In 25 days dataset it significantly shows that temperature has positive relation above 23 degree centigrade, SO 2 has a negative relationship and relative humidity has negative (between 30% to 45% and > 60%) and a positive relationship (45% to 60%) with COVID 19 cases ( p =0.05). 44 days dataset has six parameters includes temperature as positive, relative humidity as negative (between 0 to 45%) and then positive (after >45%), NO 2 as Positive (0 to 35 microgram/m 3 ) followed by negative trend (after > 40 microgram/m 3 ), SO 2 and rainfall as negative relation. After sensitive analysis, it is found that weather variables like relative humidity, solar radiation and rainfall are more sensitive than temperature and wind speed. Whereas pollutants like NO 2 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 and CO are more sensitive variables than SO 2 in this study. In summary this study finds temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, SO 2 , PM 2.5 , and CO may be important factors associated with COVID 19 pandemic.

Graphical Abstract

Highlights

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    There was a significant relationship between daily positive COVID-19 case with weather and pollution factors

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    We found PM 2.5 and CO positively associated with transmission of positive cases where as NO 2 and SO 2 have a negative relation after sensitive analysis.

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    We have found temperature and wind speed have positive relation whereas, relative humidity and solar radiation have negative relation after sensitive analysis.

  • ➢

    Weather variables like relative humidity and solar radiation and rainfall are more sensitive than temperature and wind speed. Pollutants like NO 2 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 and CO are more sensitive variables than SO 2 in this study.

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    1. ScreenIT

      SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125401: (What is this?)

      Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

      Table 1: Rigor

      NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

      Table 2: Resources

      No key resources detected.

      Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

      Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
      This study has many limitations like not inclusion of socio-cultural factors, gender, population density, movement of people and elevation etc. There is several factors can help to transmit this disease. Further laboratory and analytical studies are needed on these shortcomings.

      Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

      Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

      Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

      Results from rtransparent:
      • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
      • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
      • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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    2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125401v1 on medRxiv