Protection after Quarantine: Insights from a Q-SEIR Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rates Applied to COVID-19
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Abstract
Community quarantine has been resorted to by various governments to address the current COVID-19 pandemic; however, this is not the only non-therapeutic method of effectively controlling the spread of the infection. We study an SEIR model with nonlinear incidence rates, and introduce two parameters, α and ε , which mimics the effect of quarantine ( Q ). We compare this with the Q-SEIR model, recently developed, and demonstrate the control of COVID-19 without the stringent conditions of community quarantine. We analyzed the sensitivity and elasticity indices of the parameters with respect to the reproduction number. Results suggest that a control strategy that involves maximizing α and ε is likely to be successful, although quarantine is still more effective in limiting the spread of the virus. Release from quarantine depends on continuance and strict adherence to recommended social and health promoting behaviors. Furthermore, maximizing α and ε is equivalent to a 50% successful quarantine in disease-free equilibrium (DFE). This model reduced the infectious in Quezon City by 3.45% and Iloilo Province by 3.88% ; however, earlier peaking by nine and 17 days, respectively, when compared with the results of Q-SEIR.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.06.20124388: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.06.20124388: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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