A Model for the Testing and Tracing Needed to Suppress COVID-19

  1. Victor Wang

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Abstract

This paper presents the first analytical model for calculating how many tests and tracing needed to suppress COVID-19 transmission. The number of people needs to be tested daily is given by: Where

N is the size of the population in consideration

A r is the attack rate at any given time

T p is the test-positive rate

ρ is the percentage of infectious people that have to be detected per day. To make the effective reproduction number R e below 1, ρ must satisfy the following equation:

Where

R 0 is the basic reproduction number,

S/N is the percentage of the susceptible population over the entire population,

D is the length of the infectious period, and

η is the percentage of close contacts that have to be traced.

This model provides insights and guidance to deploy the testing and tracing resources optimally. An Excel model is attached to facilitate easy calculation of the number of tests and tracing needed. This model is also applicable to any infectious disease that can be suppressed by testing and tracing.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.02.20120568v3 on medRxiv
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.02.20120568v2 on medRxiv
  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.02.20120568: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.02.20120568v1 on medRxiv