Testing for tracing or testing just for treating? A comparative analysis of strategies to face COVID-19 pandemic
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Abstract
There is some consensus in Europe and Asia about high testing rates being crucial to controlling COVID-19 pandemics. There are though misconceptions on what means an effective high testing rate. This paper demonstrates that the rate of tests per detected case (Tests/Case) is the critical variable, correlating negatively with the number of deaths. The higher the Tests/Case rate, the lower the death rate, as this predictor is causally related to contact tracing and isolation of the vectors of the disease. Doubling Tests/Case typically divides by about three the number of deaths. On the other hand, the per capita testing rate is a poor predictor for the performance of policies to fight the pandemics. The number of tests per 1,000 inhabitants (Tests/1,000) tends to correlate positively with the number of deaths. In some cases, high levels of Tests/1,000 just mean an epidemic that ran out of control, with an explosion of cases that demands high testing rates just to confirm the diagnosis of the seriously sick. This study also demonstrates that an early tracing strategy, with a high level of Tests/Case, reduces combined costs of testing and hospitalization dramatically. Therefore, the common claim that tracing strategies are unaffordable by poorer countries is incorrect. On the contrary, it is the most adequate, both from the economic and humanitarian points of view.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.01.20119123: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Data for the tropical and southern hemisphere countries were obtained directly from the “Our World in Data” website. Data”suggested: NoneChoice’s criteria were as for northern countries, with two differences: Regression analysis was made with the statistical software Minitab 18. Minitabsuggested: (Minitab, RRID:SCR_014483)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.01.20119123: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Data for the tropical and southern hemisphere countries were obtained directly from the “Our World in Data” website. Data”suggested: NoneChoice’s criteria were as for northern countries, with two differences: Regression analysis was made with the statistical software Minitab 18. Minitabsuggested: (Minitab, RRID:SCR_014483)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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