On Reliability of the COVID-19 Forecasts

  1. Hemanta Kumar Baruah

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Abstract

In this expository article, we are aiming to show with an example that even short term forecasts regarding the COVID-19 spread pattern may sometimes not be very reliable. We have studied data published by Worldometers.info to get numerically an approximate formula of the spread pattern for a short period. We have observed that in the United States of America, there was a nearly exponential spread pattern for a very short period from May 3 to May 8, 2020. From May 9 to May 13, the nearly exponential character of the spread was found to be absent. Hence it can be concluded that the COVID-19 spread pattern, even after more than four months from the start of the outbreak, is not quite predictable. Therefore even short term forecasts regarding the spread may not be very reliable. We have found that forecasts using the assumption of an exponential pattern of spread may actually lead to overestimation.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.01.20118844: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.01.20118844v1 on medRxiv