Summer vacation and COVID-19: effects of metropolitan people going to summer provinces

  1. Tom Britton
  2. Frank Ball

Reviewed by

Read the full article See related articles

Listed in

Log in to save this article

Abstract

Many countries are now investigating what the effects of summer vacation might be on the COVID-19 pandemic. Here one particular such question is addressed: what will happen if large numbers of metropolitan people visit a less populated province during the summer vacation? By means of a simple epidemic model, allowing for both short and long-term visitors to the province, it is studied which features are most influential in determining if such summer movements will result in large number of infections among the province population. The method is applied to the island of Gotland off the South East coast of Sweden. It is shown that the amount of mixing between the metropolitan and province groups and the fraction of metropolitan people being infectious upon arrival are most influential. Consequently, minimizing events gathering both the province and metropolitan groups and/or reducing the number of short-term visitors could substantially decrease spreading, as could measures to lower the fraction initially infectious upon arrival.

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.31.20118521: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.31.20118521 on medRxiv