Forecasting the peak of novel coronavirus disease in Egypt using current confirmed cases and deaths

  1. Wagida A. Anwar
  2. Amany Mokhtar

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Abstract

The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Egypt was reported on 14 February 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased daily. The purpose of this study is to describe the current situation of Covid-19 in Egypt and to predict the expected timing of the peak of this epidemic using current confirmed cases and deaths. We used one of the online tools; the Epidemic Calculator that utilizes, the well-known SEIR compartmental model. We utilized the daily reports published by the Egyptian Ministry of Health & Population from 14 February to 11 May 2020. Given the highest calculated case fatality rate (7.7%), the number of hospitalized individuals is expected to peak in the middle of June with a peak of hospitalized cases of 20,126 individuals and total expected deaths 12,303. We recommend strengthening of the Egyptian preventive and control measures so as to decrease the CFR and the number of cases to the least possible as we approach the epidemic peak. It is most important that appropriate quarantine measures are retained., the quarantine measures should not be relaxed before the end of June, 2020.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.31.20118182: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    We draw the epidemic curve for the new cases, total cases, total recovered and total deaths using Microsoft excel.
    Microsoft excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Modeling and estimation of the epidemic trend and the effect of intervention can be enhanced by improvement of data quality that requires collaboration between Ministry of Health and population and other sectors to get the required data limitations of modeling the situation of COVID-19:

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.31.20118182v1 on medRxiv