Is India heading towards a new high? : An optimistic approach to estimate ending life-cycle and cumulative cases by the end of the major COVID-19 pandemic wave in India and some of its states

  1. P. Gupta
  2. K. K. Sharma
  3. S.D. Joshi
  4. S. Goyal

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Abstract

Projecting the COVID-19 curve parameters such as ending-lifecycle and cumulative cases are helpful in guiding the policy makers to mitigate the outbreak. However, overestimating these parameters may put the public and policy makers in a muddle. In this paper, an optimistic scenario is simulated, wherein the dynamics of the COVID-19 curve is allowed to spread to such an extent that the projections of the COVID-19 parameters do not take excessively high values. Based on this scenario, the ending life-cycle and cumulative cases for India and some of its states, are predicted. Our study, suggests that the fall of the peak amplitude (95%) of the major COVID-19 wave in India may take place by the 8 th of September 2020 with a total count of 655000 cases. Simulation results, also indicate that Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan may end up with 263700, 18140, 50600, 21130, 24420, 44170, 27080, and 28200 cumulative cases respectively.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.30.20117440: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.30.20117440v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.30.20117440v1 on medRxiv