Predictions for Europe for the Covid-19 pandemic from a SIR model
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Abstract
We develop and apply a simplified SIR model to current data for the 2019-2020 SARS-Cov-2/Covid-19 pandemic for the United Kingdom (UK) and eight European countries: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The most important result of the model was the identification and segregation of pandemic characteristics into two distinct groups: those that are invariant across countries, and those that are highly variable. Amongst the former is the infective period T L , which was very similar for all countries, with an average value of days. The other invariants were T R , the average time between contacts and R = N C , the average number of contacts while infective. We find days and . In contrast to these invariants, there was a highly variable time lag T D between the peak in the daily number of infected individuals and the peak in the daily number of deaths, ranging from a low of T D = 4 days for Italy and Denmark, to a high of T D = 17 for Norway. The mortality probability among identified cases was also highly variable, ranging from low values 3.5%, 5% and 5% for Norway, Denmark and Germany respectively to high values of 18%, 18% and 20% for France, Sweden and the UK respectively. Our analysis predicts that the number of deaths per million population until the pandemic ends (defined as when the daily number of deaths is less than 5) will be lowest for Norway (45 deaths/million) and highest for the United Kingdom (628 deaths/million). Finally, we observe a small but detectable effect of average temperature on the probability α of infection in each contact, with higher temperatures associated with lower infectivity.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.26.20114058: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Several values of R in the range R = 1.5 − 6.0 were then tested using the following procedure: For each parameter set, we fitting these data for X2(t) from small t to the peak and beyond, by finding numerical solutions of (8) and (9) using the Matlab Solver myode2 to determine [X1(t), X2(t)] as a function of time, with the initial conditions, [X1(t0) = N − a, X2(t0) = a], starting from a value t0 of t such that X2(t0) = a ∼ 10. Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.26.20114058: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Several values of R in the range R = 1.5 − 6.0 were then tested using the following procedure: For each parameter set, we fitting these data for X2(t) from small t to the peak and beyond, by finding numerical solutions of (8) and (9) using the Matlab Solver myode2 to determine [X1(t), X2(t)] as a function of time, with the initial conditions, [X1(t0) = N − a, X2(t0) = a], starting from a value t0 of t such that X2(t0) = a ∼ 10. Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We found bar graphs of continuous data. We recommend replacing bar graphs with more informative graphics, as many different datasets can lead to the same bar graph. The actual data may suggest different conclusions from the summary statistics. For more information, please see Weissgerber et al (2015).
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No funding statement was detected.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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