Hasty Reduction of COVID-19 Lockdown Measures Leads to the Second Wave of Infection
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Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 has an undeniable global impact, both socially and economically. March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic worldwide. Many governments, worldwide, have imposed strict lockdown measures to minimize the spread of COVID-19. However, these measures cannot last forever; therefore, many countries are already considering relaxing the lockdown measures. This study, quantitatively, investigated the impact of this relaxation in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Canada. A modified version of the SIR model is used to model the reduction in lockdown based on the already available data. The results showed an inevitable second wave of COVID-19 infection following loosening the current measures. The study tries to reveal the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates. Additionally, the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates is reported.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.23.20111526: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Despite our best effort in analyzing and optimizing the data collected, there are a few limitations to be considered. Our model assumes that the partially recovered healthcare system is not deteriorated by the second wave; hence γ is fixed. In addition, the SIR model assumes that the recovered cases gain immunity against the disease, which is not the case for the COVID-19 pandemic [24]. Not forgetting that, the development of testing …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.23.20111526: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Despite our best effort in analyzing and optimizing the data collected, there are a few limitations to be considered. Our model assumes that the partially recovered healthcare system is not deteriorated by the second wave; hence γ is fixed. In addition, the SIR model assumes that the recovered cases gain immunity against the disease, which is not the case for the COVID-19 pandemic [24]. Not forgetting that, the development of testing kits, treatment techniques, and a reliable vaccine can have a considerable positive impact on the infection rates, which is not considered in our analysis.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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