Do Face Masks Create a False Sense of Security? A COVID-19 Dilemma

  1. Youpei Yan
  2. Jude Bayham
  3. Eli P. Fenichel
  4. Aaron Richter

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Abstract

Face masks have become an emblem of the public response to COVID-19, with many governments mandating their use in public spaces. The logic is that face masks are low cost and might help prevent some transmission. However, from the start, the assumption that face masks are “low cost” was questioned. Early on, there were warnings of the opportunity cost of public use of medical masks given shortages of personal protective equipment for healthcare providers. This led to recommendations for cloth masks and other face coverings, with little evidence of their ability to prevent transmission. However, there may also be a high cost to these recommendations if people rely on face masks in place of other more effective ways to break transmission, such as staying home. We use SafeGraph smart device location data to show that the representative American in states that have face mask mandates spent 20-30 minutes less time at home, and increase visits to a number of commercial locations, following the mandate. Since the reproductive rate of SAR-COV2, the pathogen that causes COVID-19 is hovering right around one, such substitution behavior could be the difference between controlling the epidemic and a resurgence of cases.

Highlights

  • We use smart device location data to show the behavioral response to face mask mandates during the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic.

  • We find face mask mandates lead people to spend 20-30 minutes less time at home per day.

  • We find face mask mandates increase trip taking to a variety of locations, chief among them are restaurants.

  • This substitution behavior is concerning given the limited information on the protective value of casual face coverings.

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.23.20111302: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    To explore the impact of the mandate of face mask use to site visits, we use points-of-interest (POI) data from March 1 to May 2, 2020, from SafeGraph to examine the change in visits after the face mask mandate.
    SafeGraph
    suggested: None

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.23.20111302v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.23.20111302v1 on medRxiv