Forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in epidemic-mitigating European countries by Richards function-based regression analyses
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit many countries, and in some European countries it has been mitigated since April. Here we applied Richards function to simulate and forecast the course of COVID-19 epidemics in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Turkey, Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland. Potential total COVID-19 confirmed cases in these countries were estimated to be 240400±1300, 294100±4000, 178500±800, 176900±700, 155400±1000, 57900±400, 24000±200, 46200±300, 30000±300 and 30700±100 respectively. Most of these countries are predicted to approach ending stage between late May and early June such that daily new cases will become minimal, which may guide societal and economic restorations. In addition, total COVID-19 deaths were estimated to be 33500±300, 28200±200, 27800±200, 8740±80, 4500±30, 9250±70, 1530±20, 6240±50, 1380±10 and 1960±8, respectively. To our best knowledge, this is the first study forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic by applying the Richard function-based regression analysis.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.18.20106146: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.18.20106146: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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