State-by-State estimates of R0 at the start of COVID-19 outbreaks in the USA

  1. Anthony R Ives
  2. Claudio Bozzuto

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Abstract

We estimated the initial rate of spread (r0) and basic reproduction number (R0) for States in the USA experiencing COVID-19 epidemics by analyzing death data time series using a time-varying autoregressive state-space model. The initial spread varied greatly among States, with the highest r0 = 0.31 [0.23, 0.39] (95% CI) in New York State, corresponding to R0 = 6.4 [4.3, 9.0] (95% CI). The variation in initial R0 was strongly correlated with the peak daily death count among States, showing that the initial R0 anticipates subsequent challenges in controlling epidemics. Furthermore, the variation in initial R0 implies different needs for public health measures. Finally, the States that relaxed public health measures early were not those with the lowest risks of resurgence, highlighting the need for science to guide public health policies.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

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    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v3 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v1 on medRxiv
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