The correspondence between the structure of the terrestrial mobility network and the emergence of COVID-19 in Brazil

  1. Vander L. S. Freitas
  2. Thais C. R. O. Konstantyner
  3. Jeferson Feitosa
  4. Catia S. N. Sepetauskas
  5. Leonardo B. L. Santos

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Abstract

the inter-cities mobility network serves as a proxy for the SARS-CoV-2 spreading network in a country.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the correspondences between the structure of the mobility network and the emergence of COVID-19 cases in Brazilian cities.

METHODS

we adopt the data from the Brazilian Health Ministry and the terrestrial flow of people between cities from the IBGE database in two scales: Brazilian cities without the North region and cities from the Sao Paulo state. Grounded on the complex networks approach, cities are represented as nodes and the flows as edges. Network centrality measures such as strength and degree are ranked and compared to the list of Brazilian cities, ordered according to the day that they confirmed the first case of COVID-19.

FINDINGS

The strength presents the best correspondences and the interiorization process of SARS-CoV-2 is captured in the Sao Paulo state when different thresholds are applied to the network flows.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

the strength captures the cities with a higher vulnerability of receiving new cases of COVID-19. Some countryside cities such as Feira de Santana (Bahia state), Ribeirao Preto (Sao Paulo state), and Caruaru (Pernambuco state) have strength comparable to states’ capitals, making them potential super spreaders.

Financial support

São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) Grant Numbers 2015/50122-0, 2018/06205-7 and 2020/06837-3; DFG-IRTG Grant Number 1740/2; CNPq Grant Numbers 420338/2018-7 and 101720/2020-3.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104612: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

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    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104612v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104612v1 on medRxiv
  4. Version published to 10.1590/0102-311x00184820