COVID 19 in Bangladesh: Assumption of possible infection and death

  1. Sadik Hasan Shuvo

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Abstract

Abstract: It is a painful job to predict the death of people. But sometimes it is important to predict the future and concern the government. A furious future is waiting for Bangladesh. Objective: Objective of the study is to assume the number of positive case and death till 30th December, 2020 in Bangladesh. Study design: This study was designed with systematic review and data analysis. Method: The study was completed by analyzing data available on website. First COVID 19 case in Bangladesh was identified on 8th March. Analyzing the data increasing rate/common ratio of infection and death has been identified. Then this common ratio has been used in the formula of multiplication series. Data of China, Iran, Italy and the USA was also analyzed to assume how the death and case number increased. Social issues of Bangladesh were also analyzed. Considering all these the assumption was made. Result: It has been assumed that by the 43rd week (on 30th December, 2020) of first identification the total case can be 17024322 and total death can be 86265 by 30 December, 2020. As this is an assumption this can be true, partially true or false. But the base of assumption is strong enough so the possibility of being true or nearly true is higher. Policy Suggestion: Government should choose properly one between two options. Either government should declare curfew or let people lead normal life. A very weak lock down for a long time does not make any sense.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104562: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104562v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104562v1 on medRxiv