Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of SIR Model for COVID-2019 Epidemic Outbreak: A Case Study of India

  1. Ramjeet Singh Yadav

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Abstract

The present study discusses the spread of COVID-2019 epidemic of India and its end by using SIR model. Here we have discussed about the spread of COVID-2019 epidemic in great detail using Euler's method. The Euler’s method is a method for solving the ordinary differential equations. The SIR model has the combination of three ordinary differential equations. In this study, we have used the data of COVID-2019 Outbreak of India on 8 May, 2020. In this data, we have used 135710 susceptible cases, 54340 infectious cases and 1830 reward/removed cases for the initial level of experimental purpose. Data about a wide variety of infectious diseases has been analyzed with the help of SIR model. Therefore, this model has been already well tested for infectious diseases by various scientists and researchers. Using the data to the number of COVID-2019 outbreak cases in India the results obtained from the analysis and simulation of this proposed SIR model showing that the COVID-2019 epidemic cases increase for some time and there after this outbreak decrease. The results obtained from the SIR model also suggest that the Euler’s method can be used to predict transmission and prevent the COVID-2019 epidemic in India. Finally, from this study, we have found that the outbreak of COVID-2019 epidemic in India will be at its peak on 25 May 2020 and after that it will work slowly and on the verge of ending in the first or second week of August 2020.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.15.20103077: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    In this proposed study, we have used the MATLAB software for solving the differential equation using the above initial conditions values of S0, I0, R0, a and r.
    MATLAB
    suggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.15.20103077v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.15.20103077v1 on medRxiv