Age-dependence of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in highly exposed populations: New York transit workers and residents and Diamond Princess passengers

  1. Christopher T. Leffler
  2. Matthew C. Hogan

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Abstract

Background

Populations heavily exposed to the novel coronavirus provide an opportunity to estimate the mortality from COVID-19 in different age groups.

Methods

The mortality reported by May 13 from COVID-19 among Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers, and New York residents and Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) workers was estimated based on publicly available information.

Results

The mortality among children (age 0 to 17 yrs) in New York City was 1 in 172,692. The mortality in New York state was 1 in 322,217 for ages 10-19 yrs., and 1 in 36,725 for ages 20-29 yrs. The mortality among New York transit workers was estimated to be 1 in 7,329 for ages 30-39 years; 1 in 1,075 for ages 40-49 yrs.; 1 in 343 for ages 50-59 yrs.; and 1 in 178 for ages 60-69 yrs. Among Diamond Princess passengers, the mortality was estimated to be 1 in 145 for ages 70-79, and 1 in 54 for ages 80-89.

Conclusions

Mortality among populations exposed to the novel coronavirus increases with age, ranging from about 1 in 170,000 below the age of 18 years, to 1 in 54 above the age of 80 years.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.14.20094847: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This study has a number of limitations. If the Diamond Princess passengers or MTA workers had not all been exposed to the virus, then the observed mortality underestimates the potential mortality. Also, there might be differences between the Diamond Princess population or the MTA workers and the population at large. The MTA workers were mostly minorities, and one could argue that they suffered excess mortality because of preexisting medical conditions. On the other hand, many of the most disabled are excluded from working or travelling at sea. Our study did not estimate the mortality among nursing home patients, which has been substantially higher than that of the general population.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.14.20094847v1 on medRxiv