Evaluating the determinants of COVID-19 mortality: A cross-country study
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Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic has spread to the entire world, a race to understand the virus and to find an effective and safe vaccine or treatment has triggered interest in the factors contributing to mortality. For instance, some studies have suggested that the BCG vaccine could protect from COVID-19 and nicotine patches could be therapeutic against the virus. This study makes use of data for about 140 countries to evaluate the determinants of COVID-19 mortality. It finds that a country's share of spending on health care (as a measure of a country's effectiveness in tracking, recording, and reporting COVID-19 deaths) is positively associated with COVID-19 deaths. It also finds that the share of people above 65 years of age, obesity, and urbanization are all positively associated with COVID-19 mortality. There is no evidence that BCG vaccination, smoking prevalence, and PM25 pollution have any link to COVID-19 mortality. These estimation results are robust to alternative specifications and after controlling for confounding factors and excluding outliers. Policymakers should allocate resources towards the protection of the elderly and those suffering from underlying conditions such as obesity. They should also exercise caution about administering nicotine patches or the BCG vaccine to fight COVID-19 without the backing of concrete scientific evidence.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.12.20099093: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable Data for population, health care spending (% of GDP), share of population above 65 years, urban population (% of total population), smoking prevalence (% of men and women 15+), and particulate matter 2.5 mean annual exposure (μg per m3) are from the World Bank. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the …SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.12.20099093: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable Data for population, health care spending (% of GDP), share of population above 65 years, urban population (% of total population), smoking prevalence (% of men and women 15+), and particulate matter 2.5 mean annual exposure (μg per m3) are from the World Bank. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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