Machine learning model estimating number of COVID-19 infection cases over coming 24 days in every province of South Korea (XGBoost and MultiOutputRegressor)

  1. Yoshiro Suzuki
  2. Ayaka Suzuki
  3. Shun Nakamura
  4. Toshiko Ishikawa
  5. Akira Kinoshita

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Abstract

We built a machine learning model (ML model) which input the number of daily infection cases and the other information related to COVID-19 over the past 24 days in each of 17 provinces in South Korea, and output the total increase in the number of infection cases in each of 17 provinces over the coming 24 days. We employ a combination of XGBoost and MultiOutputRegressor as machine learning model (ML model). For each province, we conduct a binary classification whether our ML model can classify provinces where total infection cases over the coming 24 days is more than 100. The result is Sensitivity = 3/3 = 100%, Specificity = 11/14 = 78.6%, False Positive Rate = 3/11 = 21.4%, Accuracy = 14/17 = 82.4%. Sensitivity = 100% means that we did not overlook the three provinces where the number of COVID-19 infection cases increased by more than100. In addition, as for the provinces where the actual number of new COVID-19 infection cases is less than 100, the ratio (Specificity) that our ML model can correctly estimate was 78.6%, which is relatively high. From the above all, it is demonstrated that there is a sufficient possibility that our ML model can support the following four points. (1) Promotion of behavior modification of residents in dangerous areas, (2) Assistance for decision to resume economic activities in each province, (3) Assistance in determining infectious disease control measures in each province, (4) Search for factors that are highly correlated with the future increase in the number of COVID-19 infection cases.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.10.20097527: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.10.20097527 on medRxiv