Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam
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Abstract
To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases.
Methods
Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure were included. We used three parametric forms with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for Bayesian Inference to estimate incubation period for Vietnamese COVID-19 cases. Leave-one-out Information Criterion was used to assess the performance of three models.
Results
A total of 19 cases identified from 23 Jan 2020 to 13 April 2020 was included in our analysis. Average incubation periods estimated using different distribution model ranged from 6.0 days to 6.4 days with the Weibull distribution demonstrated the best fit to the data. The estimated mean of incubation period using Weibull distribution model was 6.4 days (95% credible interval (CrI): 4.89–8.5), standard deviation (SD) was 3.05 (95%CrI 3.05–5.30), median was 5.6, ranges from 1.35 to 13.04 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentiles). Extreme estimation of incubation periods is within 14 days from possible infection.
Conclusion
This analysis provides evidence for an average incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 6.4 days. Our findings support existing guidelines for 14 days of quarantine of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Although for extreme cases, the quarantine period should be extended up to three weeks.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.09.20096800: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:However, there are potential limitations in our study. First, not all confirmed COVID-19 cases have completed epidemiological data on exposure interval and date of symptom onset available on public government reports. Second, the number of patients included in the analysis is small, possibly explaining the wider range of estimated incubation period. This highlights the need for data standardization for further studies on COVID-19 and …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.09.20096800: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:However, there are potential limitations in our study. First, not all confirmed COVID-19 cases have completed epidemiological data on exposure interval and date of symptom onset available on public government reports. Second, the number of patients included in the analysis is small, possibly explaining the wider range of estimated incubation period. This highlights the need for data standardization for further studies on COVID-19 and the importance of publishing data for the scientific and public health community [9]. This study may contribute to the effort of COVID-19 control effort in Vietnam and elsewhere by providing an informed estimate of the incubation period. This is a key variable needed for modelling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, for informed decision-making throughout the pandemic. Similar methodology could be used to estimate the incubation period for other countries and diseases.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No funding statement was detected.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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