CoViD-19 Epidemic in India and Projections: Is Relief in Sight?
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Abstract
Background
Projection of cases and deaths in an epidemic such as CoViD-19 is hazardous and the early projections were way-off the actual pattern. However, we now have actual data for more than 50 consecutive days in India that can be effectively used for projection.
Methods
We closely track the trend and use the same pattern for projection. We call this Empirical Model. We also fit a Theoretical Model based on a Gamma function on the pattern of some of the previous epidemics.
Results
The Empirical Model predicts the peak around the fourth week of May and the near end of the epidemic by the end of June 2020. The maximum number of active cases is likely to be nearly 75,000 during the second week of June. This would mean a peak demand of nearly 15,000 beds and nearly 4000 ventilators. The case-fatality based on those who have reached an outcome was nearly 10% in the first week of May and is likely to remain at this level for some time. Theoretical Model projected a peak of nearly 2500 new cases per day in the second week of May that seems to have been already breached. This model predicts the near end of the epidemic by the middle of July 2020.
Conclusion
With the current trend, the end of the epidemic is in sight with relatively mild consequences in India compared with most other countries.
Article activity feed
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.08.20096008: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This may look like a limitation but the projection is based on the trend seen for more than 50 consecutive days. This is substantial to study the trend and projection that predicts much less suffering and loss of life in India compared with most European countries and the U.S. We hope that we have been able to capture the salient feature …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.08.20096008: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This may look like a limitation but the projection is based on the trend seen for more than 50 consecutive days. This is substantial to study the trend and projection that predicts much less suffering and loss of life in India compared with most European countries and the U.S. We hope that we have been able to capture the salient feature of this trend and the projection will be largely true that could bring the relief in sight.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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