Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
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Abstract
Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.08.20095380: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources In order to seek the optimized parameters, we look for the minimization, under the constraints imposed by the variation intervals of Tables 1 and 2, by means of the Matlab function fmincon, of the norm for the single-population version of the model, and
for the the two-population version.
Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the …SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.08.20095380: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources In order to seek the optimized parameters, we look for the minimization, under the constraints imposed by the variation intervals of Tables 1 and 2, by means of the Matlab function fmincon, of the norm for the single-population version of the model, and
for the the two-population version.
Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Despite the various limitations of our analysis, the standing connection of c within SIR models41 with the number of contacts suggests that policy makers should strongly recommend that people above 40 years of age continue to observe protective measures as strictly as it was done during the full lockdown period. On the other hand, it appears that the young require less protection. By implementing the above recommendations, it may be possible to allow the society and of course the economy to function, and at the same time to avoid a humanitarian disaster. Consider for example the case of primary schools; members of the teaching stuff younger that 40 years of age could perhaps function normally. On the other hand, members older than 40 years of age would be best served by adhering to lockdown restrictions. Similarly, if the parents of the children are younger than 40, they can perhaps function normally; however, if they are older that 40, they should continue to observe strict protective measures. Moreover, as is self-evident, individuals with medical conditions that place them in high risk, should also follow the stricter measure recommendations applicable to the older population. Further studies are needed to delineate better the risks associated with different age groups. The results presented here should be considered only as indicative, broad guidelines. Indeed, when reaching the above conclusions, we used the partition of data available in the country of Greece. It is con...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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