Transmission in Latent Period Causes A Large Number of Infected People in the United States

  1. Qinghe Liu
  2. Junkai Zhu
  3. Zhicheng Liu
  4. Yuhao Zhu
  5. Liuling Zhou
  6. Zefei Gao
  7. Deqiang Li
  8. Yuanbo Tang
  9. Xiang Zhang
  10. Junyan Yang
  11. Qiao Wang

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Abstract

The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded one million on 29 April 2020, becoming the country of the most serious pandemic in the world. We proposed a model to analyze the real situation and follow-up trend of the epidemic in the US.

The proposed model divides the epidemic period into two phases, and includes three different categories of transmitters: the latent population, the documented infectious population, and the undocumented infectious population. We use metapopulation network to simulate the spread of the COVID-19 in the US, and apply the Bayesian inference to estimate the key parameters of the model. We also perform component analysis and sensitivity analysis, researching the compositions of the people with COVID-19.

The results show that the basic reproduction number in the early period of propagation is 4.06. As of April 13, 2020, only 45% (95% CI: 35% - 73%) of symptom onset cases in the United States were documented. The incubation period of COVID-19 is 10.69 days (95% CI: 10.02 – 11.74). If the current level of interventions is continued, the cumulative number of confirmed cases is expected to reach more than 1.7 million in July and continue to grow.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.07.20094086: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.07.20094086 on medRxiv