Time-resolving the COVID-19 outbreak using frequency domain analysis
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
Difficulties assessing and predicting the current outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 can be traced, in part, to the limitations of a static description of a dynamic system. Fourier transforming the time-domain data of infections and fatalities into the frequency domain makes the dynamics easily accessible. Defining a quantity like the “case fatality” as a spectral density allows a more sensible comparison between different countries and demographics during an ongoing outbreak. Such a case fatality informs not only how many of the confirmed cases end up as fatalities, but also when. For COVID-19, knowing this time and using the entire case fatality spectrum allows determining that an outbreak had entered a steady-state (most likely its end) about 14 days before this is obvious from time-domain data. The lag between confirmations and deaths also helps to estimate the effectiveness of contact management: The larger the lag, the less time the average confirmed person had to infect people before quarantine.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.07.20094078: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.07.20094078: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-