Epidemic Situation and Forecasting if COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia using SIR model

  1. Haitham Khoj
  2. Alaa F Mujallad

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Abstract

Background

Saudi Arabia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19 pandemic. This will lead to negative impacts in many sectors. Saudi Arabia not only plays an important role on the economical side because it is the leading country in oil production, but also because it is considered the heart of the Islamic countries. Although protective measures have been implemented in Saudi Arabia, the number of COVID-19 cases has increased.

Aims of the study

This study aimed to employ SIR model to forecast the peak of COVID-19 progression and an estimation of it is end in Saudi Arabia.

Method

Based on the World Health Organization data on COVID-19 progression in Saudi Arabia from March 3rd to April 29th, 2020, we reliably estimate the constant parameters and make predictions on the inflection point and potential ending time. Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered are the main components of the SIR model that were used to run the analysis.

Result

The data showed an interesting result about the peak of the disease progression. It is projected to occur around the 20th day after running the model. According to the model, the peak time will be around the 20th of May. Then the cases will decrease until the 55th day, which is around June 20th.

Conclusion

The result predicts a second peak and an estimation end of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. This data can inform the policy makers, who should try to contain the virus, to be prepared for what is coming next.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.05.20091520: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.05.20091520v1 on medRxiv