Estimation of the Potential Impact of COVID-19 Responses on the HIV Epidemic: Analysis using the Goals Model
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Abstract
We applied a simulation model of HIV to analyze the effects of 3 and 6-month disruptions in health services as a result of COVID-19. We found that disruptions to primary prevention programs (male circumcision, behavior change programs, condom distribution) would have small but transitory effects on new infections that might be more than offset by reductions in commercial and multi-partner sex due to lock downs. However, if COVID-19 leads to disruptions in ART services the impacts on mortality could be severe, doubling or tripling the estimated number of HIV deaths in 2020.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.04.20090399: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable Goals is an HIV epidemic simulation model that estimates new HIV infections arising from behaviors of distinct risk groups (female sex workers and their male clients, men and women with non-regular partners, faithful couples, men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs). Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the …SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.04.20090399: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable Goals is an HIV epidemic simulation model that estimates new HIV infections arising from behaviors of distinct risk groups (female sex workers and their male clients, men and women with non-regular partners, faithful couples, men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs). Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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