Linear regression analysis of COVID-19 outbreak and control in Henan province caused by the output population from Wuhan
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Abstract
Objectives
To observe outbreak of COVID-19 in Henan province caused by the output population from Wuhan, and high-grade control measures were proformed in Henan province, to study the phase of development and change of the epidemic in Henan province, and to make appropriate inferences about the influence of prevention and control measures and the phase of development of the epidemic.
Methods
Linear regression analysis were used to establish a linear regression model with the number of Wuhan roaming people as the dependent variable and the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Henan province as the dependent variable, and to calculate and plot the regional distribution of the number of cases in 18 cities in Henan province in accordance with the criteria of whether the number of cases exceeded the expected number.
Results
There was a linear correlation between the number of people Wuhan roaming and the number of cases, and the linear regression model equation was statistically significant. The cities that exceeded the expected number of cases had a clear spatio-temporal distribution. Geographically, these cities were roughly in the 1 o’clock and 2 o’clock directions in Nanyang, and in terms of time period, the first phase (10 days), the cities that exceeded the expected number of cases changed almost daily. In the second phase (5 days), cities that exceeded the expected number of cases were moderated, and in the third phase (15 days), cities that exceeded the expected number of cases entered the stabilization phase.
Conclusions
The priority cities for COVID-19 prevention and control in Henan province should pay special attention to the cities that have exceeded the expected number of COVID-19 cases, and the implementation of high-level control measures can effectively control the spread of COVID-19 within 2-4 weeks during the early stage of the epidemic.
Article activity feed
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.03.20089193: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: We found the following clinical trial numbers in your paper:
Identifier Status Title NCT12345678 Trial number did not resolve on clinicaltrials.gov. Is the number correct? NA Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.03.20089193: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: We found the following clinical trial numbers in your paper:
Identifier Status Title NCT12345678 Trial number did not resolve on clinicaltrials.gov. Is the number correct? NA Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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