Control dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and South Korea

  1. João Manoel Losada Moreira

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Abstract

Social isolation measures reduce the population’s infection rate with the COVID-19 virus, but its effectiveness is difficult to quantify. The successful control of the pandemic carried out by China and South Korea is studied using a scheme based on the net relative rate of infection which is very sensitive to sudden changes in the epidemic evolution. The net relative rate of infection for China and South Korea without containment measures, that is, with free proliferation of the virus, lies between 10 and 40 %/day or doubling times of infected persons between 3.5 and 2 days. After measures of containment it dropped and stabilized. South Korea stabilized it around 1 %/day and China around 0.05 %/day with doubling times of 70 days and 1400 days, respectively. A discussion is provided about their processes of control and stabilization of the epidemic process and about the scheme used to study them.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.01.20087650: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.01.20087650 on medRxiv