A Simple Method for Estimating the Number of Unconfirmed COVID-19 Cases in a Local Area that Includes a Confidence Interval: A Case Study of Whatcom County, Washington

  1. David A. Swanson
  2. Ronald E. Cossman

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Abstract

Along with many other data problems affecting the unfolding of the COVID-10 pandemic in the United States, virtually nothing is known about the number of positive, unconfirmed cases, especially in local areas. We show that it is possible to estimate the number of positive, unconfirmed COVID-19 cases using a simple, long-established method employed by demographers to estimate a population in the absence of a census count. We go on to show how a confidence interval can be constructed around an estimate of positive, unconfirmed COVID-19 cases constructed from this method, using Whatcom County, Washington as a case study.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.30.20086181: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.30.20086181v1 on medRxiv