Continued and Serious Lockdown Could Minimize Many Newly Transmitted Cases of COVID-19 in the U.S.: Wavelets, Deterministic Models, and Data
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Abstract
All the newly reported COVID-19 cases of April in the U.S. have not acquired the virus in the same month. We estimate that there was an average of 29,000/day COVID-19 cases in the U.S. transmitted from infected to susceptible during April 1–24, 2020 after adjusting for under-reported and under-diagnosed. We have provided model-base d predictions of COVID-19 for the low and high range of transmission rates and with varying degrees of preventive measures including the lockdowns. We predict that even if 10% of the susceptible and 20 % of the infected who were not identified as of April 23, 2020, do not adhere to proper care or do not obey lockdown, then by the end of May and by end of June 50,000 and 55,000 new cases will emerge, respectively. These values for the months of May and June with worse adherence rates of 50% by susceptible and infected (but not identified) will be 251,000 and 511,000, respectively. Continued and serious lockdown measures could bring this average daily new cases to a further low at 4,300/day to 8,000/day in May.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.30.20080978: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.30.20080978: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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