A model to estimate demand for personal protective equipment for Ontario acute care hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic
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Abstract
In addition to instituting public health measures for COVID-19, managing healthcare resources is important for outcomes. The experiences in Italy and New York have shown that personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages can cause increased morbidity and mortality. We demonstrate a method to predict PPE demand across a health care system.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.29.20085142: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement IRB: In the absence of high quality data to inform the probability of patients being proned, we assumed that 60% of mechanically ventilated patients were being proned based on the percentage of patients with a PaO2/FiO2 <150 mmHg reported in UK case series data.[6] We chose this PaO2/FiO2 threshold as it corresponds with both clinical guidelines for the care of patients with COVID-19 and clinical trial data.[5, 7] Research ethics approval was obtained from the University of Toronto covering access to provincial databases, and was waived by the research ethics board at Sinai Health System for patient touchpoint data collection. Randomization not detected. Blinding n… SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.29.20085142: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement IRB: In the absence of high quality data to inform the probability of patients being proned, we assumed that 60% of mechanically ventilated patients were being proned based on the percentage of patients with a PaO2/FiO2 <150 mmHg reported in UK case series data.[6] We chose this PaO2/FiO2 threshold as it corresponds with both clinical guidelines for the care of patients with COVID-19 and clinical trial data.[5, 7] Research ethics approval was obtained from the University of Toronto covering access to provincial databases, and was waived by the research ethics board at Sinai Health System for patient touchpoint data collection. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:A potential limitation of our study is we did not consider individual organizational PPE use policy such as universal masking and extended use or reuse of specific items of PPE such as face-shields. Our information-gathering activities to support this work revealed that PPE use guidelines varied between institutions, and while always based on healthcare worker safety, were influenced by factors including patient case volumes and local PPE stocks. We therefore chose to base our model on a non-restrictive model of PPE utilization. We argue that health systems should be planning their PPE needs based on non-restrictive, or “worst-case” estimates of PPE demand, in order to prevent both patient and health care worker morbidity and mortality. It is possible that strategies such as universal masking, while often considered “conservation strategies” may in fact represent a significant source of PPE utilization as health systems resume previously suspended non-COVID-19 related clinical activities and there are greater numbers of healthcare workers working in acute health care systems in the weeks and months to come. We are developing an online tool on our website (www.covid-19-mc.ca) to help health systems estimate the amount of PPE required if conservation strategies are deployed. Specifically, organizations will be able to predict their PPE needs based on their local health human workforce data and conservation strategy type. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate PPE...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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