Is this the beginning or the end of COVID-19 outbreak in India? A data driven mathematical model-based analysis

  1. Anupam Singh
  2. Jhilik Dey
  3. Shivam Bhardwaj

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Abstract

India has experienced an early and harshest lockdown from 25 th March 2020 in response to the outbreak. However, an accurate estimation of the progression of the spread of infection and the level of preparedness to combat this disease are urgently needed. Using a data-based mathematical model, our study has made predictions on the number of cases that are expected to rise in India till 14 th June 2020. The epidemiological data of daily cases have been utilized from 25 th March (i.e., the first day of lockdown) to 23 rd April 2020. In the study, we have stimulated two possible scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for the prediction. As per the optimistic approach of modelling, COVID-19 may end in the first week of June 2020 with a total of 77,900 infected cases including 2,442 fatalities. However, the results under the pessimistic scenario are a bit scary as it shows that a total of 283,300 infected cases with 10,180 fatalities till 14 th June. To win the battle, 10 weeks of complete lockdown is much needed at least in the infected states and the union territories of India. Alternatively, the isolation of clusters (hotspot regions) is required if India wants a resume of some essential activities.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.27.20081422: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.27.20081422v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.27.20081422v1 on medRxiv