Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak and Counter-Measures in France

  1. Eren Unlu
  2. Hippolyte Léger
  3. Oleksandr Motornyi
  4. Alia Rukubayihunga
  5. Thibaud Ishacian
  6. Mehdi Chouiten

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered world-wide attention among data scientists and epidemiologists to analyze and predict the outcomes, by using previous statistical epidemic models. We propose to use a variant of the well known SEIR model to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in France, by taking in to account the national lockdown declared in March 11, 2020. Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) is used to find optimal parameters for the model in the case of France. We propose to fit the model based only on the number of daily fatalities, where an R 2 score based error metric is used. As the official number of confirmed cases is not reliable due to the lack of widespread testing, especially in the first phases of the outbreak, we show that basing the model optimisation on the number of fatalities can provide legitimate results.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.27.20079962: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.27.20079962v1 on medRxiv