Full-spectrum dynamics of the coronavirus disease outbreak in Wuhan, China: a modeling study of 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases

  1. Xingjie Hao
  2. Shanshan Cheng
  3. Degang Wu
  4. Tangchun Wu
  5. Xihong Lin
  6. Chaolong Wang

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Abstract

Vigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have largely suppressed the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the transmission dynamics and evaluate the impact of interventions using 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases from December 8, 2019 till March 8, 2020, accounting for time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates, and population movements. The effective reproductive number R 0 dropped from 3.89 (95% credible interval: 3.79-4.00) before intervention to 0.14 (0.11-0.28) after full-scale multi-8 pronged interventions. By projection, the interventions reduced the total infections in Wuhan by 96.5% till March 8. Furthermore, we estimated that 79% (lower bound: 60%) of the total infections were unascertained, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases. The probability of resurgence was 0.22 and 0.10 based on models with 79% and 60% infections unascertained, respectively, assuming interventions were lifted after a 14-day period of no new ascertained infections. These results provide important implications for continuing surveillance and interventions to eventually contain the outbreak.

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    Thus, the likelihood function was We estimated b12, b3, b4, b5 r12, r3, r4, and r5 by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm implemented in the R package BayesianTools (version 0.1.7).
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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.27.20078436v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.27.20078436v1 on medRxiv