New S.I.R. model used in the projection of COVID 19 cases in Brazil

  1. Augusto S. Freitas
  2. Silvio S. Lacrose Sandes
  3. Leonardo S. Silva

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Abstract

In this work, we proposed a variant of the SIR model, taking as based on models used to describe the epidemic outbreak in South Korea and Portugal, to study the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic curve in Brazil. The model presented here describes with reasonable agreement the number of COVID-19 cases registered in Brazil between February 26 and April 25, 2020 based on the hypothesis that there a large number no notified cases (11 to 1) and variation in contagion rate according to social isolation measures and greater or lesser exposure to the virus (highest rate in beginning from epidemic). To this end, we introduced an exposure factor, called β 1 /β 2 , which allows us to describe the influence of factors such as social isolation on dispersal from disease. The results also corroborate a phenomenon observed in countries that registered a high growth in cases in short period of time, to example of Italy, Spain and USA: if isolation measures are imposed late, the total number of cases explodes when the epidemic is approaching from peak, which implies a higher exposure rate in the first days of case registration. The model also predicts that the peak epidemic outbreak in Brazil, based on the number of cases, will occur around May 20, 2020.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.26.20080218: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.26.20080218 on medRxiv