A Simple Covid-19 Epidemic Model and Containment Policy in France

  1. J.-P. Quadrat

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Abstract

We show that the standard SIR model is not effective to predict the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic propagation. We propose a new model where the logarithm of the detected population number follows a linear dynamical system. We estimate the parameters of this system and compare models obtained with data observed from different countries. Based on the given estimator and results obtained with the Pr. Raoult’s treatment, we affirm with a reasonable degree of confidence that his “test-treat-noconfine” policy was less expensive in human lives than the”confine and wait for a proved treatment” policy adopted by the French government.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.25.20079434: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.25.20079434v1 on medRxiv