Importance of Social Distancing: Modeling the spread of 2019-nCoV using Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-t model
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
Background
The Novel Coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, Hubei, China, has raised global concerns and has been declared a pandemic. The infection shows the primary symptoms of pneumonia and has an incubation period, with the majority of people showing symptoms within 14 days. Online Social Networks are the closest simulations of real-world networks and have similar topology characteristics. This article simulates the spread and control of the nCoV-19 using the SIQR-t model to highlight the importance of self-quarantine and exercise of proper health care as a method to prevent the spread of the virus.
Method
The article uses the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered model with modification, introducing 14 different Infected states depending on the number of days the host has been carrying the infection. We simulate the spread of 2019-nCoV on human interaction similar graph taken from Online Social Network Epinions, of about 75000 nodes, similar to a small town or settlement. The infection rates depend on the sanitation and cleanliness these people exercise.
Results
When people practice self-quarantine and hygiene, aided by the governmental efforts of testing and quarantine, the cumulative number of affected people fall drastically. The decrease is apparent in time-based simulations of the spread received from the study.
Conclusion
The 2019-nCoV is a highly infectious zoonotic virus. It has spread like a pandemic, and governments across the world have launched quarantines. The results of the SIQR-t model indicate that hygiene and social-distancing can reduce its impact and sharply decrease the infection scale. Individual efforts are key to the control.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.17.20069245: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransp…SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.17.20069245: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
