A Novel Heuristic Global Algorithm to Predict the COVID-19 Pandemic Trend
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Abstract
Mathematical models are useful tools to predict the course of an epidemic. A heuristic global Gaussian-function-based algorithm for predicting the COVID-19 pandemic trend is proposed for estimating how the temporal evolution of the pandemic develops by predicting daily COVID-19 deaths, for up to 10 days, starting with the day the prediction is made. The validity of the proposed heuristic global algorithm was tested in the case of China (at different temporal stages of the pandemic). The algorithm was used to obtain predictions in six different locations: California, New York, Iran, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the entire United States, and in all cases the prediction was confirmed. Our findings show that this algorithm offers a robust and reliable method for revealing the temporal dynamics and disease trends of SARS-CoV-2, and could be a useful tool for the relevant authorities in settings worldwide.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.16.20068445: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.16.20068445: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.
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