Prevent the resurgence of infectious disease with asymptomatic carriers

  1. Zhechun Zhang

Reviewed by

Read the full article

Listed in

Log in to save this article

Abstract

After reaching the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak, many regions are in search of a reopening plan that would minimize resurgence. Here we show to prevent resurgence local governments need to estimate how early and how many COVID-19 cases can be detected. It is safe to end social distancing if the majority of cases are detected early in the infection window. If cases are detected later, a 2-layer quarantine may be necessary to prevent resurgence. If fewer cases are detected, community events, schools, and large businesses may need to remain in virtual mode. Our results demonstrate that detecting more cases earlier is essential for preventing COVID-19 resurgence.

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.16.20067652: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    This value is constrained by (i) the number of confirmed cases and (ii) the number of deaths reported by MDPH, and (iii) the number of conference attendees with COVID-19 symptoms reported by Biogen on March 316.
    Biogen
    suggested: (Biogen Idec, RRID:SCR_003790)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.16.20067652v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.16.20067652v1 on medRxiv