Meteorological factors and domestic new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities: A time-series analysis

  1. Zonglin He
  2. Yiqiao Chin
  3. Jian Huang
  4. Yi He
  5. Babatunde O. Akinwunmi
  6. Shinning Yu
  7. Casper JP Zhang
  8. Wai-kit Ming

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Abstract

AIM

To investigate the associations of meteorological factors and the daily new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities.

METHOD

Pearson’s correlation and generalized additive modeling were performed to assess the relationships between daily new COVID-19 cases and meteorological factors (daily average temperature and relative humidity) with the most updated data currently available.

RESULTS

The Pearson correlation showed that daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were more correlated with the average temperature than with relative humidity. Daily new confirmed cases were negatively correlated with the average temperature in Beijing (r=-0.565, P<0.01), Shanghai (r=-0.471, P<0.01), and Guangzhou (r=-0.530, P<0.01), yet in contrast, positively correlated with that in Japan (r=0.441, P<0.01). In most of the cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, and Kuala Lumpur), generalized additive modeling analysis showed the number of daily new confirmed cases was positively associated with both average temperature and relative humidity, especially in lagged 3d model, where a positive influence of temperature on the daily new confirmed cases was discerned in 5 cities except in Beijing, Wuhan, Korea, and Malaysia. Nevertheless, the results were inconsistent across cities and lagged time, suggesting meteorological factors were unlikely to greatly influence the COVID-19 epidemic.

CONCLUSION

The associations between meteorological factors and the number of COVID-19 daily cases are inconsistent across cities and lagged time. Large-scale public health measures and expanded regional research are still required until a vaccine becomes available and herd immunity is established.

Significance statement

With increasing COVID-19 cases across China and the world, and previous studies showing that meteorological factors may be associated with infectious disease transmission, the saying has it that when summer comes, the epidemic of COVID-19 may simultaneously fade away. We demonstrated the influence of meteorological factors on the daily domestic new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities. And we found that the associations between meteorological factors and the number of COVID-19 daily cases are inconsistent across cities and time. We think this important topic may give better clues on prevention, management, and preparation for new events or new changes that could happen in the COVID-19 epidemiology in various geographical regions and as we move towards Summer.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.15.20066613: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    We also estimated the Pearson correlation and covariances between the daily COVID-19 new cases and daily meteorological factors using STATA 14.0.
    STATA
    suggested: (Stata, RRID:SCR_012763)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.15.20066613v1 on medRxiv