Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate
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Abstract
Estimating the number of people affected by COVID-19 is crucial in deciding which public health policies to follow. The authorities in different countries carry out mortality counts. We propose that the mortality reported in each country can be used to create an index of the number of actual cases at a given time. The specificity of whether or not deaths are rapid or not by COVID-19 also affects the number of actual cases. The number of days between the declaration of illness and death varies between 12 and 18 days. For a delay of 18 days, and using an estimated mortality rate of 2%, the number of cases in April 2020 in Tunisia would be 5 580 people. The pessimistic scenario predicts 22 320 infected people, and the most optimistic predicts 744 (which is the number of reported cases on April 12, 2020 ). Modeling the occurrence of COVID-19 cases is critical to assess the impact of policies to prevent the spread of the virus.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.15.20065532: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One of the limitations of our model is that mortality rates can change from one country to another, depending on the distribution of the population in different age groups and on the co-morbidity that have different sensitivities to Covid-19. In the other hand, the ability of the virus to persist in different environments …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.15.20065532: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One of the limitations of our model is that mortality rates can change from one country to another, depending on the distribution of the population in different age groups and on the co-morbidity that have different sensitivities to Covid-19. In the other hand, the ability of the virus to persist in different environments (hot climate) can affect this relation. Hence the importance of comparisons between countries with more and less sunshine, at different seasons and periods.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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