Countries should aim to lower the reproduction number ℛ close to 1.0 for the short-term mitigation of COVID-19 outbreaks
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is still in its early stages and given the speed and magnitude of local outbreaks it is urgent to understand how mitigation measures translate into changes in key epidemiological and clinical outcomes. Here, we employ a mathematical model to explore the short-term consequences of lowering the reproduction number ℛ 0 and delaying measures on total infections and fatalities. The positive implications of mitigation generally accrue as these measures are adopted early, with the most striking effects seen when the reproductive number is lowered to a level ℛ C ≈1.0. As the delay in adopting measures exceeds approximately the half-way point to the peak of an outbreak, the effects of lowering ℛ 0 markedly decrease. Aiming for reproduction numbers close to 1.0 can substantially reduce fatality probabilities over short time scales, particularly for larger populations. We conclude that research is urgently needed on how mitigation measures impact ℛ 0 and how these can be optimized so as to achieve ℛ C ≈1.0 whilst supporting individual freedoms, society and the economy.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.14.20065268: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.14.20065268: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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