Estimating the Final Epidemic Size for COVID-19 Outbreak using Improved Epidemiological Models
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Abstract
Final epidemic sizes of different geographical regions due to COVID-19 are estimated using logistic, SIR and generalized SEIR models. These models use different parameters which are estimated using non-linear fits from the available data. It is found that both SIR and generalized SEIR models give similar estimations for regions where curves show signs of flattening. A study of these models with data from China indicates that in such cases these estimates may be more reliable. However, recent trend indicate that unlike China, the decline in infection rate for the US and other European countries is very slow, and does not follow a symmetric normal distribution. Hence a correction is introduced to account for this very slow decline based on the data from Italy. The estimates with all these models are presented for the most affected countries due to COVID-19. According to these models, the final epidemic size in the US, Italy, Spain, and Germany could be 1.1, 0.22, 0.24 and 0.19 million respectively. Also, it is expected that curves for most of the geographical regions will flatten by the middle of May 2020.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.12.20061002: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.12.20061002: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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