Fear of exponential growth in Covid19 data of India and future sketching

  1. Supriya Mondal
  2. Sabyasachi Ghosh

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Abstract

We have attempted to interpret existing n-cov positive data in India with respect to other countries - Italy, USA, China and South Korea. We have mainly zoomed in the exponential growth in a particular zone of time axis, which is well followed in the data profile of India and Italy but not in others. A deviation from exponential growth to Sigmoid function is analyzed in the data profile of China and South Korea. Projecting that pattern to time dependent data of total number and new cases in India, we have drawn three possible Sigmoid functions, which saturate to cases 10 4 , 10 5 , 10 6 . Ongoing data has doubtful signal of those possibilities and future hope is probably in extension of lock-down and additional imposition of interventions.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.09.20058933: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.09.20058933 on medRxiv