A Comprehensive Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak situation in India

  1. Rajan Gupta
  2. Saibal K. Pal
  3. Gaurav Pandey

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Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 in different parts of the world is a major concern for all the administrative units of respective countries. India is also facing this very tough task for controlling the virus outbreak and has managed its growth rate through some strict measures. This study presents the current situation of coronavirus spread in India along with the impact of various measures taken for it. With the help of data sources (till 7 th -8 th April 2020) from various state units of India and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, this study presents various trends and patterns. This study answers six different research questions in a comprehensive manner. It has been reported that growth rate of infected cases has been controlled with the help of National Lockdown, however some uncontrolled mass level events had a negative impact on the infected cases. With the help of exponential and polynomial regression modelling, the predictions of up to 75000 cases have been done by the end of April 2020. It has also been seen that there are some prominent clusters and patient nodes in the network of patients which are the major influencers for COVID-19 spread. Also, death rate case predictions have been done through two-class classification models with an accuracy of 60%. At the end, strategies for continuation for lockdown has been discussed and presented. It appears that only essential services should be open for the citizens of India and the national lockdown should be carried on for next 2-4 weeks. This study will be useful for the Government of India and various states of India, Administrative Units of India, Frontline health workforce of India, researchers and scientists. This study will also be favorable for the administrative units of other countries to consider various aspects related to the control of COVID-19 outspread in their respective regions.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.08.20058347: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    For the third research question, the mobility data set [19] from Google has been considered after 22nd March 2020 to see the patterns in mobility of Indian citizens at prominent places in India.
    Google
    suggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.08.20058347v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.08.20058347v1 on medRxiv