On the corona infection model with contact restriction

  1. Juergen Mimkes
  2. Rainer Janssen

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Abstract

This article presents a mathematical infection model that is designed to estimate the course of coronavirus infection in Germany for several days in advance: How many people become ill or die, what is the temporal development? If the contact restriction is perfect, then the model predicts the development of the virus infection after the initial subsidence of the infection. However, since this restriction cannot always be strictly adhered to, the model is dynamically adapted to the development. This makes it possible to estimate the number of infected people, the number of new infections and deaths in Germany about a week in advance.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.08.20057588: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.08.20057588v1 on medRxiv